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2010年7月28日

[News] 《類股》SM價格回升,國喬、台苯樂透

  • 2010-07-27 08:17
  • 時報資訊
  • 【時報-台北電】


  •  PLATTS報導,受惠下游ABS、PS需求回溫,搭配上游原料苯價反彈25美元,激勵SM最新現貨報價重回千美元大關,每公噸達1,016美元,上漲50美元。在下游需求回溫,且SM價格漲幅優於原料苯價,加上乙烯價格持續拉回整理,有利拉升利差空間,激勵SM股台苯(1310)、國喬(1312)翻紅走堅。
      法人推估,國喬第一季營業利益1.5億元,EPS 0.43元。第二季緯來電視收益優於預期,加上大陸鎮江ABS廠挹注,國喬第二季獲利約比首季小幅下滑,上半年年獲利可望約6.5億元至7億元,EPS約0.73元至0.77元。
      在下游需求回溫,且SM價格漲幅優於原料苯價,有利拉升利差空間,昨(26)日塑化類股由二線專業廠領銜攀揚表態;其中,國喬因兼具ABS、SM生產,即使第二季SM營運不佳,惟ABS、轉投資挹注,第二季獲利表現可望與首季相去不遠。
      伴隨買盤烘托,國喬昨日股價強勢亮燈漲停,以14元收盤;三大法人昨日買超國喬1,712張。
      第二季ABS需求相對穩健,搭配汽電共生成本改善,適時沖抵SM虧損壓力,尤其國喬大陸鎮江新廠持股30.4%,營運規模推升,收益貢獻行情看俏。
    (新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

    [News] 《類股》ABS價揚,台化、國喬、台達化受惠

    • 2010-07-26 08:07
    •  
    • 時報資訊
    •  
    • 【時報-台北電】

     塑化報價從5月中旬開始從高檔拉回整理,惟ABS從7月初率先觸底反彈力道,連三週持穩走揚,朝1,800美元挺進,對照期間上游原料SM仍處小跌狀態,為ABS廠台化(1326)、國喬(1312)及台達化((1309)營運增添利多佳音。
      受惠中國大陸家電下鄉政策延續,ABS需求回溫,今年首季ABS價格漲幅23%,每噸利差拉大達50至55美元;第二季ABS報價衝高至每噸1,935美元,價差達120至125美元之多,第三季ABS再度提前觸底走堅,顯見中國大陸「家電以舊換新」政策持續至2011年底,並試點擴大至28個省市,在政策與旺季效應加持下,可望支撐ABS利差表現。
      台達化目前主要的生產產品包括ABS、GPS、HIPS、EPS等,台灣、大陸天津、中山廠合計總年產能達46萬噸。其中,用於家電與汽車零件等產品外殼的ABS約占營收34至37%,為獲利較佳產品;主要銷售地區為中國大陸的80%為主,台灣內銷占10%,外銷中東等其他地區10%。
      分析師指出,EPS電子包材需求,往年第三季、第四季為傳統旺季,中國大陸建材需求約第二季、第三季夏季為施工旺季,有利需求向上攀揚。搭配ABS穩健表現,推估台達化今年營收年增20至25%,EPS約1元至1.2元。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽╱台北報導)

    2010年7月27日

    [News] 遠東新 Q2純益估增六成

    【經濟日報╱記者陳怡君/台北報導】 2010.07.27 01:47 am

    化纖大廠遠東新(1402)在回收瓶用酯粒及回收纖維製成的世足國家代表隊球衣及球員紀念衫等訂單順利出貨挹注下,法人估計,遠東新第二季的稅後純益可望季增達五至六成,上看32億元。

    遠東新第一季稅後純益20.11億元,以遠東新466.14億元的股本計算,遠東新第二季的每股稅後純益可望從第一季的0.43元,增至約0.67元,合計上半年每股稅後純益將達1.1元。

    遠東新生產的瓶用酯粒,最大客戶就是國際飲料大廠可口可樂,目前遠東新兩岸瓶用酯粒年產能130萬公噸中,有二成是出給可口可樂。

    除了先前的原生瓶用酯粒(非回收瓶用酯粒)外,遠東新於今年4月開始,把回收的瓶用酯粒出貨給可口可樂。

    遠東新更是大中華區唯一一家獲得美國食品暨藥物管理局(FDA)認可的回收瓶用酯粒廠商。

    可口可樂為響應環保,訂出裝填碳酸飲料的寶特瓶中,需有20%至25%使用回收瓶用酯粒製成。另外,可口可樂旗下的果汁飲料品牌「美粒果」,更要求寶特瓶材質中要有多達50%使用回收的瓶用酯粒。

    據了解,可口可樂也計劃在瓶裝飲用水中使用生質塑膠,也就是以植物發酵製作而成的塑膠,減少現有石油製塑膠對環境的汙染。

    目前全球只有五家廠商接獲可口可樂公司回收瓶用酯粒的訂單,除遠東新外,其餘都為歐美廠商。法人預估,遠東新要是再搶下可口可樂瓶用水生質塑膠材質的訂單,將可進一步挹注營收。

    法人表示,遠東新今年在回收瓶用酯粒、回收纖維二大業務加持下,可望帶動今年遠東新年整體營收較去年同期成長20%。

    分析師指出,因基本面轉佳,遠東新開始為一個月後的除權暖身,股價一舉越過多空分水嶺之年線位置,在線型轉多之下,上探40元整數機會濃。站上40元之後,股價就有機會創新高。

    昨(26)日遠東新股價終場收37.8元、上漲1.15元。日盛對遠東新的首次評等為區間操作,目標價42元。大和證券表示,綠能概念的回收纖維,可能成為遠東新長期獲利的成長動能,加上遠東新的聚酯長線看佳,大和將目標價調高至41元,建議「買進」。

    【2010/07/27 經濟日報】


    PS
    遠東新 http://www.fenc.com/tw/index.aspx

    遠東新世紀股份有限公司為世界化纖及其他相關產品之領導生產者,同時也是世界最大的聚酯高分子及瓶用酯粒之生產廠商之一,遠東新世紀已高度垂直整合了上下游的產品,並已邁向生產高附加價值的產品,如固聚類產品(聚酯粒)以及其他特殊規格之紡織品如超細纖維P.B.T,P.T.T紗及工業用紗等。

    [News] 六輕大火,催動丙烯8月行情

    2010/07/27 07:44 時報資訊

    【時報-各報要聞】台塑化六輕煉油2廠大火,加上烯烴一廠因故停工、二廠即將歲修,身為遠東區重量級石化大廠,可能造成對市場行情的波動引發。中油表示,近期石油腦向上攀揚,主因在於國際油價重回79美元推升所致,與台塑化煉油廠事故應無關係。乙烯則因中東、大陸新增產能大舉釋出,台塑化烯烴一、二廠的乙烯供給因故暫告停擺,也未見波動影響。

    反倒是,台塑化烯烴一、二廠,加上煉油二廠所牽動的丙烯貨源供應,粗估每月將短少近10萬噸丙烯供應。由於中東新增產能欠缺丙烯生產,在供需轉趨緊俏下,恐將對8、9月份丙烯現貨行情造成蠢動攀揚影響。

    中油指出,近期石油腦現貨報價來到660美元,主要是因國際油價彈升至79美元,在內部預期後續油價波動恐拉回整理,石油腦也將連動下滑,台塑化煉油廠火災事故影響不大。

    CHEMICAL TOKYO推估,今、明兩年全球乙烯約增產1,100萬噸、900萬噸,80%以上擴產來自中東、亞洲,增添下半年塑化報價壓力;反倒是今年全球丙烯增產幅度較小,PP、AN及CPL等丙烯衍生物產品行情相對較穩。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

    2010年7月26日

    [News] 潛力股/台橡 除息題材 股價飆

    【經濟日報╱王瑞堂】 2010.07.25 04:32 am

    產業評析:國內最大合成橡膠廠,ECFA概念股,熱可塑橡膠(TPE)處於產業成長期、苯乙烯丁二烯橡膠(SBR)、聚丁二烯橡膠(BR)位於產業高原期且積極擴大海外生產及投資布局,中國汽車輪胎成長概念股。

    看好理由:油價上升,SBR價格具支撐,7月28日將除息,含息3.2元,股價創新高。ECFA指數成份股加上新興市場商機,營收獲利看升。

    投資策略:日、周、月線均呈多頭排列,下檔48.7元有支撐。不除息則趁除息後買回,可搭填息便車。


    《橡膠股》臺橡需求活絡,獲利穩健推進
    2010-07-25 13:37 時報資訊 【時報-台北電】

     臺橡(2103)因兼具高現金殖利率、可扣扺稅率雙重條件,加上橡膠原料需求持穩活絡,吸引買盤進駐,上周五盤中股價一度跨越50元整數關卡,來到50.3元,終場股價以49.95元收紅,再創近年新高,成交張數5,046張,比前一交易日增加28%。其中,三大法人聯手買超2,882張。

     臺橡近五日漲幅5.94%。三大法人近五日買超7,819張;其中,外資、自營商分別買超6,097張、1,285張。

     臺橡目前長、短線多空量能均為偏多狀態,股價壓力50.04元,45.68元具支撐力道。

     今年受惠大陸車市持續活絡,配合大陸產能全能貢獻,法人推估,臺橡今年合併營收可望突破300億元,上看320億元,尤其,臺橡今年有台幣6千萬元的俄羅斯權利金挹注,年度EPS約4元至4.2元水準。

     臺橡目前產品以BR、SBR為大宗,搭配毛利率較高的利基產品TPE。目前BR台灣大陸合計年產能10.5萬噸,SBR兩岸產能達30萬噸,在大陸車市活絡與規模經濟支持下,獲利表現穩健推進。

    (新聞來源:工商時報─記者彭暄貽/台北報導)

    [News]《科技》2012年Q4大尺寸LED背光源面板滲透率可望達80%

    2010-07-21 15:47 時報資訊 【時報記者莊丙農台北報導】

     據DisplaySearch最新一季「LED背光源研究分析報告」中指出,估計在2012年第四季大尺寸液晶面板採LED背光源面板出貨量將超過冷陰極燈管(CCFL)背光源面板出貨量,且滲透率將高達80%。
    DisplaySearch指出,LED毫無疑問成為將來液晶面板中的主流光源,主要還是特有的超薄設計、低功耗卻能呈現高畫質性能,這對顯示器材料供應商而言是不可多得的好機會。如PMMA(俗稱壓克力)用於導光板中,白色聚酯(PET)用於反射膜,及用於LED磊晶基板的藍寶石。

    然而,液晶製造商從2010年第一季以來就面臨LED背光源關鍵零組件缺貨的窘境,電視導光板的生產數量也因PMMA的缺貨而有所限制。而許多反射膜供應商的需求也在液晶面板與太陽能電池應用之間遊走。除此之外,許多LED製造商也同時面臨藍寶石基板的短缺,尤其是2吋基板。

    DisplaySearch LED背光源研究總監Kevin Kwak指出,許多液晶面板製造商在他們修正LED電視面板出貨目標之前,並不想承認主要材料供應商的產能受到限制。特別是PMMA與PET短缺相當嚴重,PMMA與PET的供應商需要時間,並在有限資金底下增加他們的設備,導致產能擴張的速度相當緩慢。

    要如何才能解決供應鏈中的部份角色的缺貨窘境?以LED來說,更多的LED廠商能夠被承認、改善LED背光源的設計並減少晶片數目,對缺貨的現象均會有所幫助。此外,聯合投資液晶製造商與PMMA供應商也能確保導光板材料的供貨來源。

    Kevin表示,為了能成功擴展LED背光液晶電視的市場,液晶電視面板或電視製造商必須考慮產品競爭力,包含成功的採購策略、新穎的設計、有組織的商業模式以及銷售策略,因為目前LED背光源液晶電視對許多消費者而言價錢仍偏高。

    2010年7月23日

    [News] SABIC與中國公司簽署60億元諒解備忘錄

    www.cnfol.com 2010年07月22日 09:05 中塑資訊網 

      7月18日,沙特基礎工業公司(SABIC)在上海世博會沙烏地阿拉伯館與8家中國公司簽訂了總價值為60億元人民幣的合作諒解備忘錄,向8家中國公司提供60萬噸的合成樹脂。SABIC亞太區副總裁艾哈邁德?阿爾烏瑪先生表示:“今天簽署的諒解備忘錄證明瞭中國客戶對SABIC的高度信心。該備忘錄的簽署是我們的團隊在中國市場取得優異成績的、重要的里程碑。”

      SABIC是全球六大石化公司之一。公司在聚乙烯、聚丙烯及其他先進熱塑性產品、乙二醇、甲醇和化肥製造領域都處於全球領先地位。2009年,SABIC實現凈利潤90億里亞爾(24億美元);同年銷售總收入達1030億里亞爾(270億美元)。2009年底,公司總資產達到了2970億里亞爾(約合792億美元)。

      阿爾烏瑪說:“SABIC期望通過加強與所有中國客戶和商業夥伴的戰略合作關係,深化中阿兩國友誼。客戶的成功就是我們的成功。”

      SABIC聚合物戰略事業部執行副總裁哈立德?阿爾馬納先生指出:“SABIC在華業務的迅速擴展將成為全球最重要和發展最迅猛的樹脂市場的核心。這些合作備忘錄的簽訂反映了SABIC將在中國市場長期耕耘和發展的承諾。我們對中國市場的未來充滿信心。”

      據介紹,SABIC目前在大中華區共有13個辦事處,包括上海、香港、青島、蘇州、天津、台北、北京、成都、大連、廣州、杭州、廈門和深圳;另外有4個工廠分別位於上海、南沙、中山和天津;還有1個技術中心位於上海。

    2010年7月21日

    [News] 台塑中石化 獲利縮水

    【經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導】 2010.07.20 02:23 am

    印度壓克力纖維(AF)業者開工率只及五成,加上天津石化年產24萬公噸新廠投產,丙烯月青(AN)行情連翻下滑,面臨每公噸2,000美元(約合新台幣6.43萬元)保衛戰,國內AN生產業者台塑(1301)、中石化(1314)獲利被大幅壓縮。

    AN是石化中間原料,又是四大化纖原料之一,運用範圍廣泛,衍生物丙烯月青-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚合物(ABS),更名列五大泛用塑膠原料之一,是家電、電子材料及汽車零組件重要原料。

    過去因產量遠不敷市場需求,AN價格行情一直居高不下,台塑、中石化兩家生產廠商利潤豐厚。

    但是,近來歐債風暴引發全球消費力衰退,首當其衝的紡織品、汽車等,AN的行情從6月底每公噸2,450美元連翻下挫至目前的每公噸2,090美元,跌幅高達14.6%。

    AN生產廠商強調,油價起伏不定,買家不進場購料,需求疲弱,行情連翻下挫。

    AN生產廠商透露,以往化纖原料賣到印度市場,價格是最高、利潤最好,但近期來,印度市場差了很多,主要是印度壓克力纖維生產廠商因市況不佳,開工率遽降至50%至60%;另下游ABS生產廠商的開工率也僅在八成左右。

    壓克力纖維廠表示,AN價高,製成的壓克力纖維的成本行情也高,反觀目前處於低價的純對苯二甲酸(PTA)與乙二醇(EG)製造的聚酯纖維,成本相對便宜許多,因此很多壓克力纖維生產廠商已用聚酯纖維來取代。

    至於大陸市場需求方面,天津石化年產24萬公噸AN新廠投產後,市場充斥著供給充足的預期心理下,又遇上需求疲軟,行情也已挫低至每公噸2,100美元以下。

    【2010/07/20 經濟日報】

    [News] 台達化爆量漲停 帶動塑化二線

    【聯合晚報╱記者陳雲上/台北報導】
    2010.07.21 03:05 pm

    繼聯茂(6213)、科風(3043)第二季季報傳出佳音大漲後,今早市場盛傳塑化二線股台達化(1309)第二季EPS可望衝上1.2元,較第一季的0.4元大幅躍進,激勵了台達化股價連翻攻上漲停,並爆出上萬張的成交量,也帶動了塑化二線股永裕(1323)、亞化(1715)盤中攻上漲停,國喬(1312)、台苯(1310)、中石化(1314)股價也跟進大漲。

    今早更傳出台達化可能在明天公布上半年財報,EPS上看1.6元。以台達化第一季EPS 0.4元推估,第二季EPS將高達1.2元,不過,對於市場的傳聞,台達化公司發言系統上午強調,合併財報根本就還沒收到,市場一直有各種傳聞,公司不予回應。

    台達化表示,目前台達化主要的生產產品包括ABS、GPS、HIPS、EPS等,台灣、大陸天津、中山廠合計總年產能達46萬噸。產品銷售以外銷為主,其中又以大陸、香港比重最大,約占近四成比重,其次為台灣與中東地區。

    目前大陸天津廠和中山廠僅生產號稱保麗龍的EPS,年產各10萬公噸和20萬公噸,主要供應建材、包裝、農漁業用。因應市場需求,目前公司正在評估進行天津廠的去瓶頸工程。

    除了台達化第二季EPS預估大幅成長外,法人推估,中石化第二季EPS也可望接近0.9元,約是第一季的一倍。國喬因有來自緯來電視的業外收益及與奇美實業合併後的ABS綜效,預計第二季的獲利可望較第一季佳。

    就連台塑四寶中的南亞、台塑也預估第二季的財報將優於第一季。法人預估,台塑第二季有機會上看1.5~1.6元,南亞可望達到1.1~1.2元左右。

    【2010/07/21 聯合晚報】

    2010年7月20日

    [News] LED红火助PMMA市场升温

    2010-07-19 19:40:34 作者: 来源:LED环球在线

    塑化原料价格目前正在普遍走低之际,甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA)与聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)产品却因LED平板电视需求强劲而升温。价格达2800美元(吨价,下同)以上,与4月初的2000美元比较,上涨幅度高达30%左右,创下近一年半以来新高。

       今年,随着国家“家电下乡”、提高产品限价等相关政策进一步实施,以及“以旧换新”有望在全国范围推广等因素影响,今年我国彩电市场将会在2009年的基础上迎来更大的发展。据总部设在广州的赛立信事业部预测,2010年LED电视将会在2009年基础上实现3倍增长,销量将达到400万台。

       根据台湾电子时报研究中心预计,今年国际LED平板电视需求量将挑战3000万台。这成为推动PMMA与MMA强劲需求的主因。资料显示,一台电视平均使用PMMA2~2.5千克,这意味着PMMA需求将达6万~7.5万吨。据统计,2009年PMMA的需求量为2.5万吨,因此预计今年需求量将增加3倍。除此之外,PMMA片材还可以用于电脑显示器、汽车尾灯等的生产。最保守估计,今年仅是使用于电脑显示器、汽车尾灯的PMMA将超过15万吨。

       受市场原材料短缺影响,MMA现有的装置产能本来就不足,而近期亚洲许多的生产装置都进入检修期,导致产品的供应紧张,比如住友化学公司在3月份关闭了新加坡的9万吨/年3号MMA生产线,进行为期一个月的检修等;另一方面,MMA下游的需求旺盛,也支撑着MMA的价格上涨。因此,日本、新加坡及中国台湾等地区PMMA生产企业纷纷调高产品报价。

    2010年7月14日

    [News] 買盤觀望 五大泛用樹脂續跌

    2010-07-09 工商時報 【記者彭暄貽/台北報導】

     受到乙烯現貨價格滑落至900美元,加上台塑化烯烴一廠失火僅隔一日,尚未造成連動影響,本周遠東區五大泛用樹脂現貨報價呈現全面續跌狀態;其中,PE、PP下滑30美元,表現相對疲弱,PVC下挫24美元,ABS、PS則下跌16美元、12.5美元。

     塑化廠商指出,由於近期乙烯價格尚未止跌,多數買盤態度觀望。台塑化烯烴一廠失火事故目前以貿易商反應較為明顯,部分投機買盤追蠢動,惟整體買盤仍待近日現貨市場反應方能進一步研判行情反彈力道。

     由於環保問題尚未解決,泰國30萬噸LDPE產能延遲投產,僅以老廠乙烯為進料少量試車,還沒有開始消耗內部新增產能所生產的乙烯。

     尤其,近期伊朗陸續將多餘乙烯運至亞洲降價求售,泰國P T T的乙烯產線也還沒加入供給,未來乙烯價格勢必向下拖累其衍生物報價。

    [News] 丁二烯價揚 台化國喬樂

    【經濟日報╱記者吳秉鍇/高雄報導】
    2010.07.10 04:35 am

    台塑化(6505)因年產70萬公噸乙烯的烯烴一廠火燒停產,對下游客戶減量60%丁二烯供應,造成現貨市場應聲上漲,兩天來,漲了每公噸80美元,漲幅4.4%,行情並有進一步走高機會。

    市場分析,台塑化下游客戶包括台化(1326)、奇美等丙烯-丁二烯-苯乙烯(ABS)大廠,以及合成橡膠廠台橡(2103)等將有望提高產品價格;包括台達化(1309)、及國喬(1312)等公司都是受益者。

    石化業者表示,台塑化旗下年產70萬公噸乙烯的烯烴一廠於7日發生火災後,連續燒了兩天才熄滅,雖然目前尚無法進入火場勘查設備受損情況,但預期並不樂觀,起碼要停產一個月至三個月時間。

    更令市場擔憂的,台塑化另一套年產103萬公噸乙烯的烯烴二廠安排在8月下旬開始停工,進行為期約50天的歲修工程,屆時,極可能出現占六成的產能的兩座輕裂廠同時停擺情形,影響到對下游客戶原料供應。

    日前,台塑化率先通知下游丁二烯提料廠包括台化、奇美、台橡等,將減少合約供料量,在七、八月兩個月期間減少60%供應;至於9月以後另視復工情況再做決定。

    業者說,近期亞洲丁二烯現貨行情隨著乙烯大幅回落,以及天津石化拋售原料行動影響,持續走跌,近月來,由每公噸2,060美元下滑至1,820美元,跌幅逾11%,但減少供料消息一曝光,貿易商出現惜售心理,兩天來行情回穩至每公噸1,900美元。

    業者並指出,丁二烯下游衍生品ABS,因需求疲軟,從上個月開始也同步回檔,目前台化、奇美可能因原料供應減少而有降低開工率動作,如此一來,可望刺激買盤出籠,讓ABS 行情止跌。

    [News] 下游持續觀望尼龍市場低迷,力鵬6月衰退27%

    精實新聞 2010-07-06 07:33:53 記者 賴淙民 報導

    力鵬(1447)昨(5)日公告6月營收,達11.28 億元,較上月的15.54 億元衰退約27.43%,較去年同期衰退28.36%。主要是受到CPL行情反轉向下,下游廠商觀望,追漲不追跌,6月力鵬尼龍粒銷售額不到3月的三分之一。
    力鵬第二季營收達49.78 億元,較上季的歷史新高61.73 億元衰退約19.35%,較去年同期則成長19.06%;累計1-6月上半年營收為111.51億元,年增率達39.54%

    尼龍原料CPL供不應求,價格一路飆漲,推升尼龍粒價格,使力鵬第一季營收亮眼,為61.73億元,稅後淨利為3.83億,營收獲利皆創下新高。隨後CPL價格翻轉向下,下游廠商追漲不追跌,持續觀望,導致尼龍粒銷售大幅衰退,6月銷售額僅6.17億元,不到3月19.57億元的三分之一,而平織布與尼龍紗亦有小幅衰退。

    力鵬表示目前尼龍粒市場價格仍十分混亂,皆採議價方式,力鵬目前已經減產因應,未來展望仍不明朗。

    [News] 原物料價格下滑,榮化6月營收衰退一成

    精實新聞 2010-07-07 11:30:18 記者 賴淙民 報導

    榮化(1704)今(7)日公告6月單獨營收,達22.84 億元,較上月的25.59 億元衰退約10.75%,較去年同期衰退4.79%;第二季營收達75.40 億元,較上季的69.61 億元成長約8.32%,較去年同期成長10.12%;累計1-6月上半年營收為145.01 億元,年增率達19.81%。

    依產品別來看,TPE(熱可塑性橡膠)較上月衰退31.27%,從4月高峰5.84億元連兩月衰退,銷售額為3.45億元,其次為產品比重最高PP(聚丙烯)較上月衰退12.42%,當月銷售額回到4月水準為13.24億元,溶劑產品則有9%成長,銷售額為3.94億元。衰退主要為原物料價格下滑所致。

    榮化98年各產品佔營收比重為PP佔51.48%、TPE佔19.56%、溶劑15.54%、甲醇7.53%、其他5.89%。

    [News] 需求疲軟 集盛提前歲修

    經濟日報╱記者邱展光/台北報導 2010.07.03 04:22 am

    尼龍絲需求疲弱,開工率下降,加上大陸夏天限電等因素,造成尼龍切片,及己內醯胺(CPL)的中、上游產品受到波及,其中CPL行情連翻下挫,台灣尼龍切片大廠因此將大幅減產,甚至提前停爐大修因應。

    台灣唯一的CPL生產廠商中石化(1312)主管表示,亞洲區尼龍切片市場需求極度低迷,多家切片生產廠均退出市場,只有少數廠商購料僅為了應付急單而已。目前尼龍切片賣到大陸的現貨價格每公噸2,800至2,850美元,單周行情即重挫了每公噸80美元,跌幅達2.8%。

    市場傳出,台灣尼龍切片大廠力鵬(1447),已將旗下日產1,000公噸的生產廠產能降至50%至60%。另一家大廠集盛(1455)將旗下年產15萬公噸的生產廠,提前至7月停爐大修。

    法人認為,依目前的售價,台灣化纖原料CPL、尼龍切片等產品仍然有銷售利潤;只是現階段到第三季,利潤不會再像今年4、5月那麼好了。

    受下游尼龍紡織需求疲弱,及原料己內醯胺價格下跌的影響,包括台灣在內的亞洲區尼龍切片生產廠商,被迫降低生產線開工率,據瞭解,台灣尼龍切片生產廠商目前的開工率在50%至60%之間。

    歐洲債信危機,引發全球消費緊縮,消費者消費趨於保守下,做為消費品的紡織、衣飾類首當其衝,上游的化纖原料也受到波及。亞洲區CPL重挫到每公噸2,500美元左右,較5月中旬每公噸2,760美元,下挫了8%左右。台灣賣到大陸的抵岸價更下滑至每公噸2,350美元左右,下幅的幅度更高達13.7%。

    中石化主管強調,目前的交易價格,並未真正地反映需求情況;目前市場需求情況還是很緊俏。而由於大陸最大的CPL生產廠商南京帝斯曼化工,年產20萬公噸的生產廠將於7月進行21 天的大修。因此,供需失衡的情況可能延續至第三季。

    中石化主管指出,CPL、尼龍切片需求不好的另一原因是,大陸浙江地區尼龍絲生產廠商,因值夏季限電高峰,產能因此減少了20%左右。

    2010年7月7日

    [News] Eight days that could change the course of BPA regulation in the U.S.

    By Tony Deligio
    Published: July 7th, 2010

    Over an eight-day stretch in late June and early July, bisphenol A (BPA) was dealt two potentially devastating legislative blows by California and New York, as opponents of the chemical who have grown impatient with federal regulators took matters into their own hands.

    The first strike against BPA came on June 23, when the Senate and Assembly houses of the New York State Legislature voted unanimously to pass a bill ending the sale of pacifiers, baby bottles, cups/sippy cups, and straws containing BPA, effective Dec. 1, 2010. Only eight days later, the California state assembly passed a similar BPA ban on a 43-31 vote. After a senate vote to approve amendments added by the assembly, that bill will only need Gov. Schwarzenegger's signature to become law (although at this point, the governor has not expressed his intentions). The California measure squeaked through the assembly by two votes, beating back the intense opposition of 17 trade and association groups, including the state's chamber of commerce and grocers association, as well as the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Deborah Hoffman, Sen. Pavley's spokeswoman said the bill will have to be taken up before the end of the legislative session on August 31. As far as whether the governor has tipped his hand on how he'll vote, Hoffman said his office had given no indication whatsoever in either direction.

    Not "an uphill battle"

    In a June 24 interview, just one day after New York state passed its ban and before California would follow suit, Steve Hentges, senior director, polycarbonate/BPA Global Group at the ACC said BPA backers have been busy of late but that the tide against the chemical could still be turned.

    "I don't know if I'd say [advocating on behalf of BPA] was an uphill battle," Hentges said. "I think it's just a very busy time. I think the scientific case regarding the safety of BPA is still strong, and we have found that that resonates well with both legislators and regulators."

    A PhD chemist by training, Hentges worked in the chemical industry for 18 years, with much of that time spent in health and environmental activities. For the last 10 years, he's been with the ACC—the chemical and plastics industry's largest U.S. trade group—with most of that time spent advocating on behalf of BPA, and the hard, clear plastic that utilizes it as a feedstock, polycarbonate (PC).

    California and New York take matters into their own hands
    California's bill, which was written by Sen. Fran Pavley, a democrat representing Agoura Hills, was originally introduced in early 2009, but then defeated in the assembly last September. Successful on its second attempt at passage, the bill, if signed, would take effect beginning in 2012. The proposed legislation would ban the sale, manufacture or distribution of bottles or cups with BPA, and prohibit the sale of liquids, foods, or beverages in cans, jars or plastic bottles that contain BPA. The law applies to items primarily intended for children three years of age or younger.

    The New York bill was introduced on March 16, 2009 by assembly members Steven Englebright and Robert Sweeney and state Senator Antoine Thompson. As written, the bill sought to ban BPA from toys and child-care articles intended for use by children three years of age or under, in addition to restricting it from bottles, cups or other containers that would be filled with any liquid, food or beverage intended for consumption by children 14 or younger. It would also apply for the lining of jars, cans or boxes.

    That bill passed the assembly on a 58-0 vote, and according to Sen. Thompson's press office, it contains civil penalties for violations. Thompson noted in a release that while four counties in New York state had already enacted local laws prohibiting the use of BPA, the senator's goal was to make the ban a mandatory law statewide.

    In an April 12, 2010 memo, the New York State Business Council announced that it opposed the ban saying that, "BPA has been safely used to make shatter-resistant polycarbonate plastics and versatile epoxy resins for over 50 years." The council also based its opposition on the premise that such bans should come from the federal government. "The Business Council is concerned with any legislation that calls for state-specific product bans and restrictions. Chemical regulation in particular is better handled on a national level, rather than having different states with varying standards for chemical and product safety."

    Impatience with the federal government
    Calls like the above for deference to federal regulation of chemicals are increasingly falling on deaf ears. In between New York and California moving to ban BPA, the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed a lawsuit on June 29 against the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its failure to act on its petition submitted in October 2008 to ban BPA from food packaging, food containers, and other materials likely to come into contact with food. Filed in U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, the suit noted that in the more than 18 months since the NRDC submitted its petition to the FDA, the agency had expressed concern about the effects of early life exposure to BPA on brain development and the prostate gland of fetuses, infants, and children but had not acted.

    A representative of the FDA said it is against the agency's policy to comment on pending lawsuits, saying only that only that by law it has 180 days to respond by approving the petition, denying it, or providing a tentative response. In a June 29 response to the NRDC lawsuit, the ACC released the following statement. "The American Chemistry Council believes that the scientific process and the public interest are both best served by allowing the FDA to complete its ongoing review of the science surrounding the safety profile of BPA."

    A de facto national ban?
    The question now is with two of the three most-populous states in the U.S. moving close to outright BPA bans, will the chemical be outlawed on a de facto basis by companies that won't be interested in making one bottle for New York and California and another for the rest of the U.S.? For his part, Hentges called for patience and pointed towards the pending release of BPA studies from the FDA and the European Food Safety Authority. Both of which are expected this summer.

    "The science of BPA has been evaluated by a number of government agencies and regulatory bodies over the last several years," Hentges said, "and there still is a consensus amongst these regulators that have reviewed the science, a consensus that BPA is safe in the way that it's being used now." —Tony Deligio

    [News] PLA injection molding breakthrough

    By PlasticsToday Staff  Published: July 7th, 2010

    The problems with injection molding conventional PLA are well known, not least of which are its low heat resistance and limited injection-molding capability because of PLA’s increased cycle time. Teijin and Panasonic Electric Works announced their joint development of heat-resistant polylactide (PLA) molding compound made from 80% plant-based renewable feedstock and providing significantly reduced molding cycle time of around half that of conventional PLA compounds.
    Panasonic Electric Works will begin selling the new material as its MBA900H PLA molding compound for use in cell phone housings and other mobile devices and digital consumer electronics. The initial goal is to produce 1000 tons of MBA900H PLA annually by fiscal 2012..
    The bioplastic used in the MBA900H is Teijin’s Biofront, a high-heat resistant PLA with a melting point of at least 210ºC, which is significantly higher than that of conventional PLA. Biofront also shows better hydrolytic stability and achieves semi-crystallization in just 20-25% of the time required with conventional PLA

    [News] TPE North American resin pricing, June 28-July 2: PE up $0.01/lb; PP $0.02/lb higher in quiet week

    By PlasticsToday Staff
    Published: July 7th, 2010

    Market overview: The spot commodity resin markets were relatively slow as the 4th of July holiday approached. Since it was the end of the second quarter and most of June's business was already booked, many market participants took an extended holiday, according to spot-trading platform, The Plastics Exchange (TPE).
    Polyethylene (PE) prices nudged a penny higher on Monday and remained there for the rest of the week.

    Polypropylene (PP) prices rose $0.02/lb and are currently $0.03/lb above the June lows. The spot monomer markets dropped last week.

    After a month of negotiations, June PE contract pricing finally settled, with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) down $0.06/lb, while low-density polyethylene (LDPE) settled $0.04/lb lower. TPE CEO Michael Greenberg said these declines could be considered a victory of sorts for processors, since producers had held firm late in the month, trying to relieve prices by only $0.02/lb less. Late in the week a PE producer announced a $0.04/lb increase for August on higher alpha olefins (HAO) LLDPE and LDPE resins, but as yet, others have not followed suit.

    Ethylene for July delivery transacted up a half-cent on Monday to $0.36/lb, but fell the rest of the week. Spot prices were pummeled on Friday in active trade, ending the week at $0.30/lb, for a 15% loss. The June Ethylene net transaction price (NTP) was reportedly down $0.0525/lb from May, settling at $0.395/lb. Polypropylene contracts followed polymer-grade propylene (PGP) monomer lower, with both settling down $0.08/lb in June.

    Propylene markets were quiet, as refinery grade propylene (RGP) shed a quarter-cent to $0.4275 and spot PGP once again went un-traded. Initial settlements for July PGP contracts emerged at $0.555/lb, which would be steady from June. Greenberg advised that if the current flat July PGP agreement solidifies market-wide, participants can expect PP contract prices to also remain steady in July.
    Energy markets moved lower in the U.S. last week, as crude oil for August delivery tumbled $6.72/bbl to close at $72.14/bbl on Friday, while August natural gas futures prices continued fell $0.221/mmBtu to end the week at $4.687/mmBtu. The crude oil:natural gas price ratio shrank to 15.3:1.

    Exports heated up some, with a number of European traders seeking PE at prices not seen for several weeks. As the dollar weakened, however, bids increased and a number of deals were concluded at prices $0.02-$0.03/lb above recent levels. Spot supplies of certain resins that had been plentiful, such as LLDPE Butene and HDPE blowmolding, began to tighten. Spot supplies of PP, both domestic and export, are significantly shorter than in recent weeks.

    After rising $0.22/lb through April, PP contracts gave back $0.20/lb during May/June, for a net gain of $0.02/lb for the first half of 2010. Contract PE prices ran up $0.18/lb through March, held steady in April, and then dropped $0.12/lb in May/June. Average LDPE prices were down just $0.08/lb. Going forward, Gulf Hurricanes warrant attention and while Alex avoided the major petrochemical complexes, Greenberg cautioned that, "Other storms are already brewing and the season is still very young."

    [News] 台達化EPS年產量將提升

    • 2010-07-03 01:34
    • 工商時報
    • 記者彭暄貽╱台北報導

      著眼大陸ABS需求活絡,繼奇美、國喬(1312)大陸ABS合併新廠擬加碼投資,鞏固大陸第一大ABS廠後,台達化(1309)也正評估大陸天津EPS(發泡級PS)廠去瓶頸化工程,若確定實行,最快年底完成,屆時年產量可由10萬噸提升至13萬噸。

     台達化表示,ABS銷售對象主要為中國地區之來料加工廠,在全球總體經濟格局不變下,目前下游廠商手邊庫存應所剩無幾,有利ABS買盤逐步浮現加溫。

     除ABS穩健收益外,PS行情也有回溫跡象。高緯度國家因氣候嚴寒,對於隔熱保溫建材需求高。而夏季為建築旺季,此時對於保溫建材之需求最為強烈。

     台達化指出,夏季時EPS(發泡級PS)於建材與包材上之需求,約可來到一比一之比重。四月轉虧為盈,主要供應非中國地區之客戶。

    [New] 台塑中石化 獲利看淡

    台塑(1301)、中石化(1314)高獲利的產品丙烯腈(AN)價格正急速走跌,受到日、韓業者陸續復工,以及下游壓克力纖維廠降低開工率,三周來行情重挫10%,恐影響兩業者獲利表現。

    據了解,先前日、韓輕裂廠相繼停工進行歲修,連帶下游的AN生產線也同步停爐,但在市場需求暢旺下,價格一路攀升,一度達每公噸2,450美元的歷史天價。然而,目前市場情勢出現反轉。

    中油主管指出,這幾個月來,對生產廠台塑及中石化而言,AN可以說是獲利金雞母,以6月為例,主力原料丙烯的合約供料價約在每公噸1,180美元,原料與產品差價曾高達1,270 美元,前所未有。

    但6月中旬起,因日、韓生產線紛紛加入投產行列,供應面快速增加,使得行情開始大幅回跌,以本周來看,由原先每公噸2,250美元下挫至2,180美元,跌價70美元,累計近三周來跌幅更逾10%。

    中油並指出,丙烯腈產品的兩大客戶群包括壓克力纖維廠,及丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚物(ABS)生產廠,面對市場進入需求淡季,正紛紛減產。

    以壓克力纖維廠客戶為例,開工率只約在六成水位,至於ABS客戶則下調至七、八成開工率,也是行情回軟的一大原因。

    2010年7月6日

    [News] Moldmaker grows by speaking its customers’ language

    http://www.plasticstoday.com
    By Clare Goldsberry
    Published: July 2nd, 2010

    R&D/Leverage UK (Sutton in Ashfield, Nottinghamshire) continues down the path of building itself into a full-service solutions provider, which has resulted in the company reporting 17% growth in sales for the first six months of 2010. Several factors have played into this growth rate, including the popularity of the Product Solutions Lab (PSL), delivery times up to twice as fast as the competition, the recent addition of the Genesis Hot Runner System, all combined with effective communications with non-English-speaking customers throughout Europe.

    R&D’s Product Solutions Lab (PSL) is the latest in a series of expansions and enhancements designed to benefit converters and brand owners globally, says the company. “Our PSL is a building-within-a-building that provides additional value-added services to our customers and has proven so popular that we are looking to purchase additional machines,” says Alan Tolley, managing director of the UK facility. “While it is but a part of our recent success, the PSL is becoming our signature, in a sense, since we can provide customers with in-house training modules and the capability to provide first-to-market samples, so we can now qualify almost any product, including extreme shapes and extreme specifications in-house.”

    Tolley noted that sales growth is running 20% ahead of the company’s 2010 forecast. In addition to the PSL, other factors behind the sales growth is R&D’s investment in infrastructure that was matched by its investment in people capable of conducting business throughout Europe, including Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Poland. “Our foreign language skills are enhanced by our user-friendly customer service and problem solving,” said Tolley. “We encourage a flexible, nimble style in partnership with our customers, and provide fast delivery times.”

    An increased popularity of PET products vs. glass, which provides higher quality and eco-friendly benefits, has also contributed to sales growth. Recently, a UK retail giant has committed to converting its small wine bottles to PET, which are 88% lighter than glass, according to published reports. The Genesis Hot Runner System has contributed to PET’s popularity because it provides high quality and enhanced production efficiencies, Tolley said.

    R&D—Integrated Solutions in Plastics is a leading supplier of tooling for the food, beverage, home, personal care, and healthcare industries. Leverage Integrated Industrial Design is R&D’s full-service consumer packaging design company located in a separate facility within the R&D campus. Together, R&D/Leverage provide mold manufacturing for PET tooling, as well as a full range of support functions, including sampling analysis, mold maintenance, contract molding and processing assistance, concept development, validation, and implementation (prototype molds, mold sampling, and low-volume production). —Clare Goldsberry

    [News] MMA價揚 台塑樂透


    塑化原料行情紛紛落馬之際,甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA),與壓克力樹脂(PMMA)卻因LED平板電視需求強勁,再加上各廠面臨大修,造成市場行情一枝獨秀,市場行情達2,800美元以上,創下近18個月來新高價位;台塑(1301)、中石化(1314)、高雄塑酯,及奇美等相關生產廠受惠最大。

    業者表示,生產LED平板電視,必須利用PMMA,製造PMMA的原料是MMA;除此之外,PMMA可以製成電腦顯示器、汽車尾燈等零組件。

    如今,原料嚴重欠缺,台灣、日本、新加坡等亞洲區PMMA大廠均調漲產品報價,調整後的行情達2,800美元以上,創下近18個月來新高價位。與4月初每公噸2,000美元比較,上漲幅度高達28.5%。

    高雄塑酯化工是中石化與英國璐彩特(Lucite)集團共同投資,中石化持有40%股權,除高雄仁大石化區生產廠MMA年產能10.5 萬公噸外,雙方還聯手斥資1.2億美元進軍大陸上海,興建年產能9萬公噸的MMA生產廠,兩岸總產能可達20萬公噸。

    亞洲是全球LED電視的主要生產基地,今年需求量將挑戰3,000萬台,是推動PMMA與MMA強勁需求的引擎。法人強調,一台電視,平均使用PMMA2至2.5公斤;意味著,PMMA新的需求是6萬至7.5萬公噸。據統計,2009年PMMA的需求量為2.5萬公噸;預料,今年LED平板電視需求量就增加了三倍。

    PMMA生產廠商表示,2010年PMMA需求將增加5萬公噸,是2009年的二倍。PMMA射出片材還可以用於電腦顯示器生產,甚至可以生產射出的汽車尾燈。最保守估計,今年光是使用於電腦顯示器、汽車尾燈的PMMA將超過15萬公噸。

    高雄塑酯與璐彩特投資的上海MMA廠2005年投產,兩岸總年產能20萬公噸。台塑企業旗下的台塑,其MMA生產能為10萬公噸。至於,下游PMMA廠則只有奇美實業,年產能為10萬公噸;加上奇美鎮江廠(已與國喬合併)的PMMA生產廠,總年產能為20萬公噸。

    [News] 預估國喬2010年營收金額為160.05億元

    2010/07/05 00:00 (工銀投顧 提供)
    http://www.funddj.com
    SM在2009年新增供給約有60萬噸,2010年新增供給達226萬噸,短期之內供過於求的情況短期內將難以舒解,預期2010年全年SM利差將會維持在低檔水準。
    ABS在中國大陸「家電以舊換新」政策持續,且將試點擴大至28個省市,在政策與旺季效應加持下,將有利ABS利差在2H10持續擴大。

    IBSTIC預估國喬2010年營收金額為160.05億元,YoY+25.66%,稅後盈餘為14.46億元,YoY-43.28%,稅後EPS 1.60元,2010年底淨值可達14元。IBSTIC鑑於國喬營收比重較大的SM產品利差維持低檔水準,給予區間操作投資評等,PBR 0.8~1X
    營運分析
    公司簡介:
    國喬為國內乙烯單體(SM)與ABS樹脂廠商,資本額92.66億元,其中占營收比重最大的SM產品,占營收比重介於65~68%。觀察國內SM廠商尚有台苯台化,其中台苯SM單一產品的專業廠商,年產能達34萬噸,營運表現與SM報價連動性最高;在台化方面,SM年產能高達120萬噸,但占營收比重不到10%,營運表現與SM報價連動性最低,在國喬方面,SM年產能為33萬噸,ABS年產能為8萬噸,國喬SM國內市占率為17.6%,營運表現波動與SM報價介於台苯台化
    hspace=0
    產能概況:
    國喬SM年產能為33萬噸,部分供本身生產ABS用,其餘主要為外銷,預計在4Q10將有為期一個月的修歲,同時進行去瓶頸工程,屆時SM年產能達37萬噸。ABS方面,將由8萬噸增加至12萬噸,ABS主要應用以電腦資訊、機殼等套件、家電為主,年產能為8萬噸,國內市占率8%(國內奇美100萬噸、國喬8萬噸),ABS產能主要70%內銷、30%外銷。國喬因有SMABS生產線,可依原物料價格變動,調整SMABS產品比重,因此受價格波動影響相對小於同業。
    另外國喬鎮江三個廠與奇美實業三個廠的合併案,原本預計10/01/2010作為合併基準日,因申請進度順利,提前至07/01/2010正式生效,未來合併後的新公司鎮江奇美,國喬持有30.4%鎮江奇美股權,合併後新廠年產能達110萬噸,包含ABS年產能70萬噸、PS年產能35萬噸與PMMA年產能5萬噸。此外鎮江奇美擬盈餘轉增資的方式,投資1億美元,擴充15萬噸ABS產能與7.5萬噸PMMA產能,預計在2012年底完成。
    hspace=0
    營運概況-SM
    乙烯單體(SM)是由與乙烯經化學作用而形成的產品,下游產品包括PSABSSBR等。1噸的SM=0.8噸的+0.3噸的乙烯+110~130美元工繳。因此、乙烯與SM之間的價差也攸關國喬SM的獲利。
    回顧4Q09,中國天津石化年產能50萬噸SM已在10/2009開出,近期產能利用率己提升至80%。另外鎮海煉化64萬噸的SM產能也在06/17/2010開出,產能利用率高達90%,再加上伊朗Pars也在2010年開出60萬噸新增SM產能,全球SM產能過剩,造成SM價格下滑。
    回顧1Q10,SM平均價格約在1,270~1,280美元/噸;2Q10,SM平均價格則下滑至1,150~1,160美元/噸,平均下滑幅度約9~10%,若以SM兩者之間價差來比較,1Q10兩者平均價差約在300美元/噸,2Q10價差則縮小至255美元/噸,上述顯示,SM在2009年新增供給約有60萬噸,2010年新增供給達226萬噸,短期之內供過於求的情況短期內將難以舒解,預期2010年全年SM利差將會維持在低檔水準。
    hspace=0
    營運概況-ABS
    ABS樹脂主要由AN丁二烯SM三種單體聚合而成,1噸的ABS=0.6噸的SM+0.25噸的AN+0.15噸的丁二烯+180~200美元工繳。ABS特性為具耐熱、耐衝擊、硬度佳、成型加工性優且具工程塑膠特性,主要應用在家電、資訊產品等,如電腦外殼、NB外殼與汽車零件等。
    回顧1Q10,受惠中國大陸家電下鄉政策延續,ABS需求回溫,帶動ABS價格由4Q09的平均價格1,470~1,480美元/噸,上揚至1Q10平均價格1,800~1,820美元/噸,漲幅高達22~24%,相較於同時期SM的漲幅而言,1Q10的ABS利差已逐漸拉大至50~55美元/噸。2Q10,ABS需求持續增溫,ABS報價已達到每噸1,930~1,940美元,ABS價差已大幅拉大至120~125美元,將有助於國喬ABS產品的營運表現。
    展望2H10,中國大陸「家電以舊換新」政策持續至2011年底,且將試點擴大至28個省市,在政策與旺季效應加持下,將有利ABS利差在2H10持續擴大。
    hspace=0
    業外-緯來電視與汽電共生廠:
    國喬持有緯來電視台62.29%股權,為台灣主要的衛星頻道供應商,旗下有六個頻道,分別為緯來體育台、緯來日本台、緯來電影台、緯來綜合台、緯來戲劇台與緯來育樂台,及代理三個國外頻道。回顧2009年,緯來電視台貢獻國喬投資收益為2.04億元。1Q10,緯來電視台貢獻國喬投資收益為0.46億元,較1Q09同期的0.05億元轉投資收益,成長倍數。IBSTIC預估2010年緯來電視台將貢獻國喬投資收益為2~2.5億元。
    另外國喬斥資25億元興建汽電廠,10/2009開始運轉,04/2010正式投產,一年可生產150噸蒸氣與2.5億度電,其中蒸氣約85%用於自有SMABS產能,15%出售予鄰近廠商使用,電力方面大多自用為主,其餘少部分電力售予台電,預計一年可節省3.5~4億元生產成本,並可增加約0.2億元業外收入。

    2010年獲利預估:
    國喬2010年SM產品線受到全球新SM產能陸續開出,供給大幅增加,造成SM利差持續縮小;在ABS方面,在中國家電舊換新政策與旺季效應加持,帶動ABS利差逐季擴大。綜合來說,2010年國喬營收比重較大的SM產品將會下滑,營收比重較小的ABS產品線將會逐漸增溫。IBTSIC預估國喬2010年營收金額為160.05億元,YoY+25.66%,營業利益為6.11億元,YoY-35.76%,稅後盈餘為14.46億元,YoY-43.28%,稅後EPS 1.60元。

    [News] ABS新廠貢獻大 國喬再加碼


    • 2010-07-02 01:21
    •  
    • 工商時報
    •  
    • 記者彭暄貽/台北報導

    醞釀ABS、SM升級能量,國喬(1312)啟動台灣、大陸擴產計畫。國喬發言人、副總楊品正表示,大陸鎮江ABS新廠整併完成,預計2年內把ABS產能從70萬噸拉高至85萬噸,加計7.5萬噸PMMA及導光板擴產,營運產能規模突破百萬噸。

    此外,今年台灣SM將透過去瓶頸增添4萬噸產能,年產能達至37萬噸,明年台灣ABS也將以同樣方式,把產能從8萬噸增加為12萬噸。

    由於目前ABS現貨價格與SM每噸有高達800美元、900美元價差空間,即使扣除成本因素後,ABS每噸獲利價差也有300美元、400美元之多,國喬大陸鎮江新廠持股30.4%,營運規模推升,收益貢獻行情看俏,今年4、5月份合計收益貢獻逾億元水準。

    楊品正指出,兩岸簽署ECFA,SM雖未列入早收清單,但因國喬旗下SM多屬內銷,ABS即使有80%外銷,也是轉出口性質,具有關稅免徵免退資格,營運不受影響。反倒是,大陸ABS新廠整併後,營運綜效放大,配合大陸ABS需求活絡,以及後續擴產計畫,營運衝刺能量頗具信心。

    楊品正說,雖然今年SM獲利行情不如去年,惟國喬汽電共生運轉,增添每月3、4千萬元成本改善,適時替補SM收益差距空間。

    此外,據統計,今年除大陸天津、福建煉化合計新增112萬噸SM正式釋出,下半年大陸寧波另有一62萬噸新增產能開出。明年SM新增產能包括大陸吉林、巴西各有32萬噸、25萬噸及去瓶頸8萬噸計畫,產能衝擊可望比今年明顯舒緩,配合SM近年多有4%至5%的年需求成長,營運可望漸入佳境。

    2010年7月4日

    [News] 台塑四寶6月營收 不看好


    台塑四寶6月營收還沒公布,法人先「唱衰」,在塑化原料行情低迷影響下,估計除台塑(1301)外,其餘三寶6月營收都將遜於5月,南亞(1303)、台塑化(6505)可能衰退最多。

    台塑集團主管說,隨著8月後市場需求恢復,塑化價格可望止跌反彈,四寶業績將同步彈升。

    台塑集團主管昨(30)日強調,上半年塑化原料價格高點落在5月初,隨後因歐洲債信危機引發的國際油價大幅起落,買家暫時退場觀望下,導致塑化原料行情大幅回軟,部分產品的售價更陷入虧損泥淊中。

    未來,市場是否會如期恢復,台塑集團主管認為,端視葡萄牙、西班牙、愛爾蘭、希臘等歐洲四國的債信問題是否繼續惡化。

    面對即將發布的6月營收,台塑集團主管認為,五大泛用塑膠、四大化纖原料行情從6月初起走滑,四寶6月營收均受到波及,但台塑生產的部分化學品,如聚縮醛(POM)、甲基丙烯酸酯(MMA)、正丁醇(NBA)等,價格仍居高點,使台塑所受衝擊較其他三寶相對較少。

    法人分析,希臘等歐洲四國所引發的債信危機,導致近期國際油價大幅波動;油價波動過大,使汽油、柴油、航空燃油等成品油價格很難訂定,台塑四寶中首當其衝的,就是台塑化。此外,中東新輕裂廠乙烯產能陸續開出,令連翻下滑的乙烯行情雪上加霜。

    市場認為,乙烯最新行情約每公噸915美元,依目前市況研判,很快就會跌至800美元以下。

    2010年7月2日

    [News] Film and sheet extrusion leaders look back, forward


    By Tony Deligio
    Published: July 1st, 2010


    Leaders from Reifenhäuser, Gloucester Engineering, Windmöller & Hölscher, Macro, and Macchi talk new technology, new markets, and new post-2009 outlook for the film and sheet extrusion sector.

    Pulling together insights from five leading companies in the film and sheet extrusion market, some themes quickly became apparent in our Q&A survey. Participants represented the film extrusion gamut, covering blown and cast film, as well as winding technology, but all said business in 2010 is much improved over 2009. At its bottom in 2009, Q&A participants saw cutthroat price wars to win the few orders that were consummated, with all deals requiring arduous efforts to secure capital for customer financing as the global credit markets froze.

    All were asked to offer advice for processors in the new normal for film and sheet, and several said converters would be wise to target scrap. In addition to (not surprisingly) promoting investment in machinery, there were also calls to invest in human capital through training.

    Q: How did the recession of 2009 change your business, your customers’ business, and the market(s) you serve?

    Reifenhäuser: The recession of 2009 influenced the business of Reifenhäuser Group in an unknown manner. Order income was down over 50%, and the activities of the market were simply frozen. Hardly anyone dared to decide for a new investment and the few who wanted to do so received no bank financing. Because of this situation, the fight for the few remaining orders was brutal. Prices for machines dropped by 10%-15%.

    The change from booming 2007/mid-2008 to this disaster was dramatic. Different from that was our customers’ business. Food packaging and hygiene markets, especially, did not collapse and consumption continued at a reasonable level. For that reason, in the fourth quarter of 2009, the demand for new capacities and for product developments switched the atmosphere in the markets.

    More projects, more traveling, and more serious discussions have been the result. From the end of 2009 to today, there has been a remarkable change in the market. The levels of 2006 could be reached by the end of 2010.

    Jones: The main change seen by machinery manufacturers was a reduction in business conducted as processors cancelled or put on hold capital purchases. Because of the need to keep legacy equipment running rather than retiring it, a proportion of the lost business was regained in the form of refurbishment and upgrade orders. Towards the end of 2009, the volume of business available picked up markedly as an apparently improving economy caused shelved proposals to be dusted off and put out for quote again. With regard to processors, with reducing demand leading to further excess capacity, margins generally appear to have been squeezed even further.

    Wheeler: W&H, as a global company, is involved in flexible packaging, not just extrusion or printing. While the North American market is the single largest market for W&H, the rest of the world makes up the majority of our sales. The recession was damaging in North America, but our business here was still strong, fueled by the fact that flexible packaging (food, snacks, etc.) are about as “recession proof” as you can get.

    Around the rest of the world, the projects were there, but money—the customer’s ability to borrow—was very tight. Some customers in North America moved cautiously, while others saw the recession as an opportunity to drive their technology forward with the understanding that the stronger, more innovative companies would survive and thrive.

    The Multiwall Div. of W&H (paper/poly/foil structures) was affected the most by the recession, as that division is driven strongly by the construction and building industries. Cement bags, for example, are all produced by multiwall machines and new construction worldwide stopped cold during that time.

    Planeta: Our business strategy hasn’t really changed as a result of the 2009 recession. Thanks to our capacity to supply custom-engineered machinery, we still saw demand, albeit reduced, from processors looking for something special that would help them gain an edge in their market when it returned. We had several key projects running through the year that kept us occupied until the markets picked up in Q4. We also pushed for more international business, which helped shelter us from the local recession.

    Gammell: The recession made borrowing money more difficult for our customer base, while the strong euro made Italian equipment more expensive, which led to lower margins when items did sell. The overall economy made the consideration of capital equipment investments by our customers a difficult one.

    Q: What event or condition is having the biggest effect on your sector of the plastics industry in 2010, and which one do you think will be the most important in 2011?

    Reifenhäuser: In 2010, the main players in the market for plastic products were growing, are growing, and will continue to grow. Those who want to succeed have to adjust to actual market demand. That means new products, better productivity and quality, and new capacities. The K 2010 fair in October will be the ideal marketplace for this changed sector to make new investments.

    Jones: Aside from the continuing economic uncertainty, there is a general understanding that in any improving economy, energy and polymer costs are likely to rise substantially. Both are largely determined by oil prices, and the underlying long-term trend of increasing world consumption and level or reducing supply has not changed during the recession. As such, those film producers that can are investing in new machinery that is intended to be more energy efficient and/or capable of providing the same film functionality with less or lower-cost polymer. This is likely to promote further consolidation in the industry as the more efficient producers out-compete and take over the less efficient.

    Looking farther ahead, in the stretch film industry there is likely to be more investment in thin-wall core and coreless technology as this gains market acceptance and market share. Downgauging in the stretch industry is likely to continue but with diminishing returns as the physical limits of the polymers used are reached.

    Planeta: Exchange rates. Fluctuations in the rates between the Canadian dollar with the U.S. dollar and the euro are becoming more substantial and occur much faster than they used to. As an exporter to global markets, it’s become very difficult to project long-term pricing. This, combined with low-price competition from developing countries, generates a significant challenge for managing prices to remain competitive. We expect this to continue through 2011.

    Gammell: In 2010, borrowing difficulties and resin price fluctuation are having the greatest effect on our sector, although the strengthening U.S. dollar vs. the euro may ease customer investment concerns. As for 2011, the way the financial world changes, this is anybody’s guess.

    Q: What was your company’s top technology development in 2009? What will it be this year?

    Reifenhäuser: Technology development was one of the main issues of 2009. The free capacities in engineering during the crisis led to some ambitious R&D targets. In particular for Reifenhäuser, the acquisition of Kiefel and the merger of blown-film activities to a best-of-two technologies led to an improvement of all parts of our blown-film technology. We had remarkable improvements and the actual order income proves the relevance to customers’ demand. The technology development in 2010 will again top that of 2009 and will be a highlight of K 2010, not only in blown film, but all other technologies as well.

    Jones: With increasing sophistication in production machinery, developments tend to be spread over more than one year. The biggest efforts in progress are on the WOW project, a revolutionary new high-speed winding system for stretch film, and Symphonix, an integrated line control and HMI system based on a 24-inch touch screen and vector graphics, while utilizing off-the-shelf hardware.

    Wheeler: W&H had an open house in November 2009, which was attended by 1300 people from more than 50 countries, where several significant technological developments were presented. It would be difficult to say which one was the “top” development. At that event, we introduced W&H’s new:
    1) MDO (Machine Direction Orientation) line.
    2) Aquarex water-quench blown-film line for up to nine layers, with high output and clarity.
    3) Optimex low-cost blown film line
    4) Opticool, a revolutionary (single) air ring design for extremely high output—we have hit 50 lb/in of die circumference.
    5) Filmex cast-film line with nanotechnology running 34 micro layers of stretch film.
    6) Vistaflex 10-color printing press with full robotics and a large 49-inch repeat length running 2650 ft/min.
    7) Easy Col automatic color-matching capability.

    Even for an engineering-focused company with more than 1500 patents, 2009 was an outstanding year of breakthroughs at a time when every other company was scaling back.

    Planeta: Macro invests heavily in R&D, so we had several key technology developments last year, the most important being a new PVC cling film line, a new reversible surface winder with zero-foldover transfers, and improvements to our biax extrusion technology, gauge control systems, and extrusion output capacity. In 2010, we’re following the same path of putting priority on improving our systems to meet customer wish lists. Our current focus is on increasing line speeds of our extrusion systems and enhancing their automation features, such as self-adjusting control based on recipes.

    Gammell: In 2009 our top technology development was the air ring cooling improvement that led to increased production rates while maintaining stability and quality, as well as control system technology and other undisclosed projects.

    Q: What advice are you giving to processors on how to prosper in these tough times? Besides investing in more efficient and productive technology, what else should your clients be looking at?

    Reifenhäuser: The key for success in good and in rough times is to focus on your specialties. To be the best in class in your niche, to concentrate on customers’ demands, and employ the best people. Never wait, but react on the actual situation in a strong and dedicated manner.

    Jones: There is increasing pressure, both consumer and legislative, to improve environmental credentials. The jury may be out on the real ecological impact of biopolymers and biodegradable polymers, but there are still steps that can be taken to reduce environmental impact and carbon footprint, regardless of the industry. And that applies not just to the products themselves and their methods of production, but to the whole infrastructure associated with them. Everything from in-house recycling to low-energy buildings has a part to play and is an investment towards a viable and sustainable future.

    Wheeler: Of course W&H’s position is that companies are always stronger in tough times if they have set themselves apart from their competition with better technology. There is still too much scrap being run even with resin prices where they are, and suppliers are being squeezed for every last penny. That is an area that can still be greatly improved upon. It also goes directly to our customers’ bottom line, as their customers do not pay for the amount of scrap they might generate.

    Planeta: Improve the process to save on scrap. Make process changes as fast as possible and reduce line startup times to minimize the amount of scrap generated. Investments in gauge control technology will also provide cost savings through tighter use of the more costly materials, such as barrier resins. Alternately, a switch to a higher-value product or a unique product may generate better margins.

    Gammell: Invest in training of personnel specifically in understanding the workings of a line and line management. Run ongoing and consistent preventive equipment maintenance programs. Explore available resins for source duplication and alternative materials, as always, downgauging to reduce resin cost.

    Q: Will you be expanding your company’s geographic reach, either in sales or manufacturing, in 2011? If yes, where?

    Reifenhäuser: Expanding in geographic regions is not the actual target. Supporting and encouraging the revival in all our well-known regions is the name of the game.

    Jones: Gloucester Engineering is already a global supplier; for top-end capital equipment suppliers, limited geographic presence is no longer an option. Currently manufacturing is predominantly in the U.S., but with the opening of Kabra Gloucester Engineering, a joint venture with Kabra Extrusion Technik in Damman, India, manufacturing capacity will increasingly be available from the subcontinent. And with regard to systems integration, for a substantial proportion of Gloucester’s business, global component sourcing is already a reality.

    Wheeler: We have made a concerted push into Canada in the past year or so. We were always represented there, but perhaps approached the Canadian market too much the way we do the U.S. We now have excellent Canadian representation and have sold a number of machines there in the past year, which, we believe, positions us for further growth.

    Planeta: We are expanding in all markets, with specific plans to expand manufacturing, sales, and service into the U.S., followed by an additional sales and service branch in Europe. We have already expanded our Canadian operation through the acquisition of an additional 50% of production floor space and the hiring of 35% more staff.

    Gammell: Macchi will continue expansion into India and the Far East.